Global Politics With A Nuclear Twist

The Americans have two warships in the Persian Gulf.

An Iranian website close to the Revolutionary Guard says Iran has drones capable of reaching American warships in the Persian Gulf.

The European Union is downbeat about how much enriched uranium Iran now has. They say Iran probably has enough to make a nuclear bomb.

The European Union also says economic sanctions alone will not resolve what is now a tense stand-off.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tehran would defend itself against any US attack on its nuclear facilities.

George W. Bush insists Iran is not solely concerned with the development of nuclear power, but is trying to develop a nuclear bomb.

The stand-off is tense. Every politician of every Western nation involved is insisting diplomacy will always come before any military action, and military action is, and should always be, a last resort. But over the past few days, everything which has been said, done, and reported, is strikingly similar to the build-up to the war in Iraq. The United States is being stubborn in constantly asserting that a rogue nation under a fearsome dictator is either trying to make, or already has possession of, a nuclear weapon. The rogue nation refutes such a claim, but does not allow the Western world (either in the form of the UN or the United States) unlimited access to its 'nuclear' facilities.

Once again the United Nations seems on the sidelines, watching on, powerless to influence the things that really matter. The report of Hans Blix prior to the war in Iraq was first questioned by Donald Rumsfeld, before it was just ignored. Now, the United Nations has imposed sanctions on the rogue state, but now even the EU says economic sanctions may not be enough.

I think a lot of it comes down to who is scared, and who is scared the most. All the politicians talk tough. That does not help. Yesterday the BBC reported that Iran did not fear a US attack. That might be what Iranian officials say, but I would bet normal Iranian people have fears of a US invasion. They would not be human if they did not fear an American attack. Just across the border Iranians have seen the consequences of an American lead invasion.

Like their Iranian counterparts, the American people are scared. Nuclear bombs in the possession of a nation that is not allies with the White House scares the American people. Their fear is often expressed as an offensive gesture: Vietnam; Afghanistan; Iraq; and now Iran?

Maybe. At the same stage before the Iraq war, everybody knew the US was going to invade Saddam's country, regardless of whatever 'caution talk' was coming out of the Pentagon. I'm not so sure the United States is as gun happy as it was then for a number of reasons. Since then, one hopes that they will have learnt that overthrowing the country's leadership is only part of the problem. Rebuilding the country is far harder.

An American presence In Iraq will probably be necessary until at least 2010. More and more suicide bombings, car bombings and random shootings are occurring In Baghdad every day. Not a day goes by without innocent civilians dying at the hands of the insurgency. Killings happen so often, most news networks do not bother giving them more than a few seconds of coverage.

What is more of an issue, though, is troop numbers. The United States still has a big presence in Afghanistan. The Americans are still needed there. In January, George W. Bush announced a sharp increase in troop numbers in Iraq (because of the worsening violence). The United States of America is a big country, but it does not have an endless supply of soldiers. Thousands have died in Iraq. Thousands have died in Afghanistan. Tens of thousands still remain. Whisper this next statement quietly: they might need the draft.

Not since the Vietnam War has the draft been popular. Calling up ordinary civilians for compulsory military service is a crime against humanity. Forcing citizens to fight against their will is wrong.

How scared are the American public? How much more scared can they get? Can the White House scare them enough as so they support the reintroduction of the draft? Roughly two years ago now, one senator introduced a Bill into the US Senate which would have brought back the draft. 99 Senators, including the gentleman who introduced it, voted the Bill down. (One of the Senators was ill on the day of the vote.) This was done solely to convince Americans that bringing back the draft was not an option.

But two years is a long time. The United States has seen a lot of troops killed in Iraq since that vote. They have had to send more to troops. They have seen President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rise to power in Iran. To invade Iran, I think the White House would need to scare the American public into thinking the draft was necessary to protect American values. Undoubtedly, the region would be a safer place with a democratic regime in charge of Iran, but as we have witnessed in Iraq, a swift change is impossible. Democracy is not instantaneous, as it was sold to the Americans before the invasion of Iraq. Tell me war is not going to happen, and I will call you a liar.

Yours, wherever you may be,
Daniel C. Wright.